A Sachs/Mason-Dixon poll suggests there is overwhelming support for the United States to "continue to be a world leader in manned space exploration." The results may suggest less than meets the eye -- or more depending on how one looks at it.
The question in the poll, asked of 625 adults between May 23-24, was either leading or informative. In any case it was a generic "mom and apple pie" sort of question.
According to WCTV: "NASA is close to launching its final manned Space Shuttle and our nation's space program faces an uncertain future with no plans to continue sending men and women into space after 2011. Do you believe the United States should or should not continue to be a world leader in manned space exploration?"
The result of the poll should prove encouraging for advocates of space exploration. Nationwide, 57 percent of the respondents said that the United States should be the world leader as opposed to 26 percent who said that the US should not. The numbers track pretty well across the political spectrum, with similar results for Democrats, Republicans, and Independents.
However, the premise of the poll, while accurate, seems designed to elicit the resulting response. If, for example, the phrase, "In this era of $1 trillion plus deficits" had been added, the support numbers might diminish.
One of the thorny parts of judging American support for space exploration is determining how much people are willing to spend on it. And that in turn is determined by how much people think space exploration costs. If people think that NASA spends -- say -- $100 billion a year, their support for space exploration might be more problematic than for people who know that the current NASA budget is $18.6 billion.
Then there is the problem of what in space to explore. The Constellation program targeted the moon, then Mars for human explorers. The Obama administration cancelled Constellation and is now, allegedly, aiming for an asteroid. What is the popular support for the moon vs. an asteroid? What about going to Mars directly?
Then there is the problem of government vs. commercial and what role each should play. Some people want to abolish NASA altogether and just privatize its functions. Others are skeptical about the current drive to use government subsidies to commercialize some aspects of space travel. Still others might be open to alternative ideas, such a private/public partnerships or using tax incentives instead of direct subsidies to foster commercial space.
Finally there is the question, why explore space? Are we doing it just to plant the flag and do good science? Are we doing it to bring the world together? Or are we doing to expand human civilization across the solar system?
Some day some marketing organization will conduct a real survey of public attitudes about space policy. One poll question does not constitute a proper market survey however.
Mark R. Whittington is the author of Children of Apollo and The Last Moonwalker. He has written on space subjects for a variety of periodicals, including The Houston Chronicle, The Washington Post, USA Today, the L.A. Times, and The Weekly Standard.
