There has been a lot of news lately about "Commercial Space" efforts -- since several companies are working on capsules that promise to be able to lift people into space. These efforts would help to replace a few of the Space Shuttle's capabilities. Recently I have seen some of the hardware from many of the commercial developers and wanted to share some thoughts about two of them.
Two developers stand out -- SpaceX (a company started by Elon Musk) and Boeing. In many ways these two remind an experienced space guy of the story of the tortoise and the hare. Is SpaceX the glamorous hare, getting a fast start? One of the advantages they have is Ken Bowersox, a retired Shuttle commander who knows exactly what has to be done to fly a reliable system. In this effort, is Boeing the cautious tortoise -- moving slowly but deliberately? They have not flown a capsule yet, and have recently decided to use the experienced Atlas rocket team to lift their capsule. Maybe due to their experience, they have an effort that is getting much less publicity.
SpaceX has already flown a version of their capsule and so has leaped ahead in the eye of the public. It is also a new company, started by a young entrepreneur who came out of the Internet business. Based in Los Angeles, it certainly has the star power. Since SpaceX is a company that is the project of a person -- Elon Musk -- what would happen if he is distracted? He also has a car company, Tesla Motors, that has taken a lot of his attention. Even his personal life and his recent expensive divorce could affect the priority that he could give to SpaceX. That company is spread very thin -- they are developing a series of rockets (the Falcon) as well as two versions of their Dragon capsules -- one for cargo and one for people. The Falcon rocket has had all of the developmental troubles that we have seen with similar complex systems, and could also delay SpaceX. Recently they have been working on a launch pad in California as well. The company has already started talking about possibly sending the Dragon capsule as far as the Moon -- an ambitious goal. SpaceX has the reputation of not wanting advice from any of the people who have the experience in spaceflight.
Boeing is using a capsule design that is intended to be as simple as possible -- it is designed to just go to the Space Station. As we have seen many times with aerospace systems, simplicity is the best assurance we have of reliability. They also have the resources of a company that has developed many space systems as well as innovative aircraft; so their pool of talent is very deep. The concern that observers have is -- could problems in their other businesses cause them to pull back from a risky investment? Are they too cautious, and too reliant on the government? Their recent decision to use the Atlas rocket, a system that has flown reliably for years and probably has few surprises left in it, gives them a strong rocket to lift their capsule into space. It also has a well proven launch team in Florida, they have flown that rocket many more times that SpaceX has flown Falcon.
The next few years, as both companies fly their capsules and rockets, will be very interesting. This is a exciting time for the space business, as we watch two totally different companies approach a very difficult and merciless task with different philosophies.
